报告题目：

       Coupling wheels of East Asian summer monsoon and its diversity on interannual time scale

内容提要：

       The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is characterized by a three-dimensional coupling wheels in circulation regime, which can be described as the coactions of low-level western Pacific anticyclone (WPA), the upper-level South Asian high (SAH), and the Mongolian cyclone (MC) over North Asia. They act as three coupled dynamical wheels via the upper-level westerly jet over North China and the vertical shear of the meridional monsoonal flow over Southeast Asia. In present study, we applied the EOF and K-means cluster analysis and revealed the dominant modes of EASM in wind and rainfall anomalies during 1979–2015. The first mode shows a coupling wheels between MC and SAH with a passive response of WPA. The second mode, however, is featured by the coupling wheels between WPA and SAH with a passive response of MC. These two distinct coupling modes revealed the diversity of EASM regimes on interannual time scale. The strong or weak EASM correspond two distinct circulation regimes, implying that a perfect prediction of monsoon index may causes the failure of rainfall prediction.

主讲人：祝从文

主讲人简介：

      祝从文,理学博士，二级研究员，硕士和博士生导师，中国气象科学研究院气候系统研究所副所长，主要从事东亚季风、气候变化和短期气候预测研究，曾荣获2006年度茅以升北京青年科技奖，在国内外学术期刊发表学术论文50余篇。个人网页：http://ics.camscma.cn/home/researcher/workerInfo?workerId=17

报告时间：5月10日15：00

报告地点：十大信誉网赌大全412

（联系人） 盛立芳

主办单位：十大信誉网赌大全